Conference League Betting Guide – Tips and Predictions
We are down to the knockout rounds of the third tier of European competition – the ECL – as we count down to the final in May.
This is your guide to everything Conference League related – from the knockout bracket and the teams involved to betting tips and predictions. Let’s take a look at everything you need to know about the Conference League 2024/25.
What is the Europa Conference League?
The Conference League was first founded in 2021 as a brand-new third tier to European club football, giving a whole new batch of clubs access to matches on the continental stage. Before 2021, smaller clubs with less established investment struggled to qualify for Europe let alone compete on a meaningful level. However, the creation of the Conference League and significant changes to European competition mean the playing fields are finally being levelled.
In 2024, new rules were implemented to ensure Europa League teams were no longer able to drop down into the Conference League mid-way through the competition. This, and the establishment of a clear League Phase and Knockout Phase system, has led to a more competitive and exhilarating tournament for all involved. In short, only teams who specifically qualify for the Conference League can now lift the trophy come May.
How to qualify for the Conference League?
The Conference League is designed to be a tournament that gives smaller clubs a chance to dream big on the European stage. As such, nations ranked 1 to 5 in the official standings (England, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France) are only allowed to enter one team each per year. Nations ranked 6 to 15 are allowed two teams, countries ranked 16 to 50 are allowed three teams, and nations ranked 51 to 55 are allowed two teams. Generally speaking, teams qualify for the Conference League by finishing in a certain position in their domestic league. For example, in England, Chelsea qualified for the third tier of European football in 2024 by finishing sixth. Even though Liechtenstein does not have a domestic league, they are still allowed to enter the winner of the Liechtenstein Football Cup. That is the beauty of the Conference League!
Qualification, League Phase, and Knockouts
Over 100 teams take part in three qualifying rounds and a play-off before we even know who is going to compete in the Conference League proper. Generally speaking, smaller teams enter the competition in the first qualifying round while larger teams like Chelsea only have to win a two-legged play-off fixture.
The League Phase is a simple but exciting affair. Each team is drawn against six rival clubs – three of which they will face at home and three they will play away. You get three points for a win and one point for a draw which all gets added to one giant league table containing all 36 competing clubs. Come the end of matchday six, if you are in the top eight in the table, you automatically progress to the knockouts. If you finish from 9th to 24th, you are entered into the play-offs, which you must win to book your place in the knockout rounds. If you finish 25th or lower in the league table, you are eliminated altogether.
Once the play-offs are completed to decide the 16 teams progressing through to the Knockout Phase, the real drama begins. From the Round of 16 onwards, it is a straight knockout fight all the way to the final. Each club plays their opponent across two legs home and away, with the aggregate winner progressing through to the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and eventually the final itself.
Best teams and players in the knockouts
Following the culmination of the play-off fixtures, we now know our 16 Conference League Knockout Phase clubs, and the eight matches that will decide their fate.
- Real Betis vs Vitoria SC
- Jagiellonia vs Cercle Brugge
- Celje vs Lugano
- Panathinaikos vs Fiorentina
- Copenhagen vs Chelsea
- Molde vs Legia Warszawa
- Pafos vs Djurgarden
- Borac vs SK Rapid Wien
Former CL and EL winners Chelsea are obviously the favourites to go all the way and lift the trophy at the end of the season. The Blues topped the table in the League Phase with six wins from six, scoring 26 and conceding just five on their march to a perfect record. Cole Palmer wasn’t even included in the League Phase squad, so Enzo Maresca’s team is only going to get stronger in the knockout rounds. Players like Enzo Fernandez, Jadon Sancho, Pedro Neto, Marc Cucurella, Moises Caicedo and Palmer will have much more of a say as the knockouts progress – unless Copenhagen can cause a massive early upset.
Fiorentina could end up being the closest challenger to Chelsea over the coming months. The Viola are on the other side of the bracket, meaning they can only meet the Blues if both make it all the way to the final. Fiorentina finished third in the League Phase with four wins from six. Raffaele Palladino’s side are currently pushing for the European places once more in Serie A and boast a strong squad this year. The likes of David de Gea, Robin Gosens, Nicolo Fagioli, Nicolo Zaniolo, Moise Kean, and Albert Gudmundsson all have bags of talent and important European experience that could be vital.
Real Betis are the third horse to keep an eye on in this particular race. Once again, they are on the opposite side of the bracket to Chelsea, and they could end up facing Fiorentina in the semi-finals if both teams make it. Strangely, Betis only finished 15th in the League Phase table, although squad rotation may be to blame. The Spaniards had to get past Gent in the play-off round to book their place in the knockouts. Once again, Betis are pushing for the final European qualification slots in La Liga this season so should be taken very seriously in the Conference League. Hector Bellerin, Diego Llorente, Giovani Lo Celso, Johnny Cardoso, William Carvalho, Isco, and Antony are all experienced players to keep an eye on.
Beyond the big three, the likes of Vitoria SC, SK Rapid, Legia Warszawa, Panathinaikos, and FC Copenhagen should be considered among the chasing outsiders. The bottom half of the bracket could be blown wide open if Chelsea suffer a shock early exit, while clubs in the top half may find it difficult to knock out both Real Betis and Fiorentina to reach the final.
Conference League 2024/25 predictions
The top prediction for the 2024/25 Conference League will shock no one – Chelsea are heavy favourites to lift the trophy on May 28th. However, it would be wrong to cement them as anything close to certain champions. Chelsea, Fiorentina, and Real Betis are all competing around the 5th-7th mark in their domestic leagues. Of course, the PL is arguably stronger in standard, but Chelsea have been in disappointing form since the turn of the year. If the Blues can lose to Ipswich Town, Fulham, Aston Villa, and Brighton, they can definitely be beaten by Fiorentina or Real Betis.
Perhaps the more interesting prediction is which one of the Viola or Betis will make it through to the final. Although Fiorentina are two-time runners-up in the Conference League and finished 12 places higher in the League Phase table, we are tipping Real Betis for a spot in the final. A front line containing Giovani Lo Celso, Anthony, and Isco should be enough to edge the battle and set up a date with Chelsea in Poland.
Our head says Chelsea should get the job done, but our heart thinks a Real Betis upset could be on the cards.
Conference League Betting Tips
What should you do when one team is the heavy favourite to win a competition? The answer is: get creative. With Chelsea the top choice to lift the trophy at the end of the season, there are some interesting odds attached to other teams. What happens if Fiorentina or Real Betis pull off an underdog win in the final? What if FC Copenhagen cause an early shock in the Round of 16? After all, the Danish team competed in the CL group stages in both 2022/23 and 2023/24. Chelsea could also come up against the likes of Legia Warszawa, Djurgardens, and SK Rapid Wien on their route to the final. All it takes is one sloppy performance or heavy team rotation from Enzo Maresca to send the Blues crashing out.
It is always a good idea to look at the recent form of teams involved in the competition – both in domestic and European football. Who is looking unstoppable and who is struggling to get results? It can also help to look at the form of individual players to see if that influences your decision. For example, Cole Palmer might be on a five-game scoring streak or Marc Cucurella could have three assists in his last three games.
On the other side of the coin, you could look at Chelsea’s predicted dominance as a chance to cash in on their goalscoring ability. Betting on the likes of Cole Palmer or Christopher Nkunku to score multiple goals in one game could have good value. Predicting the opposition to pick up plenty of yellow cards against the Blues could be another clever avenue to explore. You could even look at handicap betting to see whether Chelsea can win matches even after giving the other team a head start.
How to bet on the Conference League
Betting on the Conference League is just as easy as betting on the other two major European tournaments. You can bet on the outright winner of the tournament even mid-day through the competition. You can also browse a wide selection of matchday betting markets to place wagers on specific games, players, scorers, and results.
Conference League latest odds
Chelsea are currently 1.66 favourites to win the entire competition, adding yet another European trophy to their cabinet. If the Blues do secure victory, they will become the first team in history to have won all three tiers of European competition. Fiorentina are currently second favourites with odds of 6.00, while Real Betis are only just behind at 8.00.
- Chelsea: 1.66
- Fiorentina: 6.00
- Real Betis: 8.00
- Vitoria SC: 15.00
- FC Heidenheim: 17.00
- SK Rapid: 20.00
- Legia Warszawa: 26.00
- Jagiellonia: 30.00
- Cercle Brugge: 34.00
- Panathinaikos: 35.00
You can also get odds on whether a team will make it to the final:
- Chelsea: 1.25
- Real Betis: 2.75
- Fiorentina: 3.00
- Vitoria SC: 10.00
- SK Rapid: 10.00
- Legia Warszawa: 12.00
- Panathinaikos: 12.00
- Jagiellonia: 15.00
- Cercle Brugge: 20.00
- FC Copenhagen: 20.00
All the latest Conference League outright and matchday odds can be found via ArcticBet HERE.
When and where is the 2025 final played?
The 2024/25 Conference League final will be held at the Stadion Wrocław in Wroclaw, Poland on Wednesday 28 May.
Who has won the Europa Conference League?
Since the very first Conference League competition was held in 2021, the list of winners is pretty small in comparison to the EL and CL. In the inaugural 2021 tournament, Roma reigned supreme with Jose Mourinho at the helm. In 2022, the trophy went to London, with West Ham United earning the bragging rights. In 2023, Olympiakos lifted the trophy. Interestingly, Fiorentina have finished second twice in the three tournaments.
What is the prize money for winning the tournament?
The winner of the 2024/2025 Conference League will take home more than €10 million in total. Teams receive €3.17 million just for reaching the League Phase, another €800,000 for qualifying for the Round of 16, €1.3 million for the quarters, €2.5 million for the semis, and €4 million if they finish as runners-up.
Please note that the odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last updated: 02.04.25
